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EXCLUSIVE: LESSONS FROM BREXIT Featured

EXCLUSIVE: LESSONS FROM BREXIT

An own goal of EPIC proportions

By Nathan Rees, former NSW Premier

SO, last week Britons went to bed having voted to exit the European Union (EU) after more than 40 years.

The next day, they woke to find their Prime Minister had resigned. They woke to find their pound was down 15% against the US dollar. They woke to find the pound down against the Euro around 10%.

That is, inside 24 hours they were leaderless, and about to pay more for everything.

Then things got bad. Scotland said it might remove itself from the United Kingdom. Then Northern Ireland and Scotland said they might scuttle the arrangement in their Parliaments; bearing in mind, neither of these United Kingdom countries voted to exit.

And, across the channel, far right activists in France were agitating for France to remove themselves from the European Union. 

In response, the founding members of the European Union had a simple message for Britain; get out of our house now and don’t let the door hit you on the backside on the way out.

How did it get to this point? Pundits around the world are scratching their collective head. Half of Britain is pounding its head.

The brutal truth is that the political class left the masses behind in their zeal for the European Union.  Politicians (all stripes), the commentariat, big businesses, academia… all these groups, and others, have long assumed that the economic, cultural and practical benefits of the European Union were self-evident.

They weren’t. 

Increasingly, Britons felt isolated from decision making that had a real impact on their lives. Most commentary has been around the vexed issue of migration across the EU, and this was clearly a potent element for many in the ‘Leave’ campaign. 

But the disconnect between the political class and the average Briton went deeper.

Stories abound about the overreach of the policy and legislative diktats being issued from the seat of the European Union in Brussells, Belgium.

It wasn’t just the big policy issues, like migration, which annoyed too many people. The little things also fed a disgruntlement, daily. 

Take, for example, the standardisation of the wattage for kettles (yes, those needed to boil water for a cup of tea).  This was standardised across the European Union.  The result? 

In many locations, it took longer to make your cup of tea.

For the record, my personal view is that the United Kingdom should have stayed in the European Union.  However, opinion leaders who held the same view failed to adequately explain the risks to leaving. 

Instead, they concentrated on some pretty ethereal benefits - better employment and investment prospects, improved security, economic efficiencies. All of these are true, but they are notoriously difficult to demonstrate as being material in a particular household, or even village.

The architects of the ‘Remain’ campaign failed to exploit the best understood truism in politics; that fear beats hope, every time. 

The United Kingdom now faces the very real prospects of a serious currency devaluation, reduced investment, slower job growth and increased social unrest in a country divided down the middle.

Resentment will simmer for years to come, and many respected economists are forecasting a recession.

According to some economists there will be a drop in economic growth of minus 3% during the transition period, and possibly minus 5% under a worst case scenario.

What does this mean for Western Sydney and the engine room of the Australian economy?  Firstly, the European Union is Australia’s third largest trading partner after China and Japan. Secondly, around 40% of our trade with the EU is directly with Britain. 

There is no crystal ball, and uncertainty will shadow the immediate future until the transition to exit is complete.  What we do know is that the Australian dollar took a hit, but we are stronger against the pound than a week ago. 

That’s good news for importers, bad news for exporters. Currency uncertainty is likely to remain for some time, with resulting hesitancy to invest in the United Kingdom. On balance, however, most domestic economists are predicting a mild medium and long term impact on Australia. 

There are important lessons out of this for Governments around the world. Critically, that there is always a need to engage directly with the populace about the reasoning behind economic policy. That conversation can never end and is worthwhile remembering as we head to the polls.

As frustrating as Australian politics can be, it pales in comparison with what has occurred in the United Kingdom over the last week. 

It’s human nature to think things can get worse; but they can. Iceland beat England in the European Cup, a soccer tournament that’s quite a big thing. 

Interestingly, the England manager is paid millions to do his job. The Iceland coach is a part-time dentist, doing it for the love.

There should be a moral in there somewhere; but in this crazy, mixed up world, I can’t find it.

 



editor

Publisher
Michael Walls
michael@accessnews.com.au
0407 783 413

Access News is a print and digital media publisher established over 15 years and based in Western Sydney, Australia. Our newspaper titles include the flagship publication, Western Sydney Express, which is a trusted source of information and for hundreds of thousands of decision makers, businesspeople and residents looking for insights into the people, projects, opportunities and networks that shape Australia's fastest growing region - Greater Western Sydney.